Starting the year on a downswing

Well thus far the year has started out continuing the downswing I started in the end of 2k10. Before I get too involved, this is by no means a complaint. Merely an observation. If there is one thing I have learned about poker(and statistics), it's the existence of variance. I have been on my largest (and longest) downswing yet playing. So far it's close to 200 games and down about $75 Now granted this is by no means the largest or longest I will probably ever have, but at this moment and factored for my bankroll it is pretty significant. In writing about it though I hope I can formulate a plan to slow the variance down and eventually reverse it an upswing. I think one of my main problems is trying to "bite off more than I can chew" and playing stakes that are a little higher to test the waters. I've also been playing a lot more MTT's with higher entry #'s and while I can feel a big score coming with a lot of deep runs I've made, it just hasn't happened yet. So it looks like in slowing the variance monster down I may have to go back to what got me here, my bread and butter... the $1 45 man sng's. While I still mix in a good amount of the $1&3 45 man's, they definitely have gotten away from my norm. The main aspect in all of this is playing games I'm comfortable playing and know how to win, while still making the best decisions on the felt. Bad beats will happen, but as long as good decisions are made eventually they will pay off. I've read a lot on the variance forum on Pokerwit, and thru what some players say I've really examined the bad beats and downswing and view them for what they are. They are not "bad beats" unless I'm the one that beats myself with a bad decision. Sometimes I think people fail to realize that even thru all the glitz and money, that it is still just a game. And to me there is no point unless you are having fun and do your best to play your best. That is what all players should truly strive for and within that good things will happen. I guess what I'm really saying is there is no point in not being optimistic about poker, and life in general. You never know what each day will bring you, and sometimes you have a little bit of control over it too.

Kicking ass and taking names... or at least trying to

I've been putting in a good volume this week playing at least a few games every day and will probably hit at least 100 for the week which is nice to stay on my goal. That being said, variance is still rearing its ugly head and I'm still in a slump of sorts. Actually, I've been playing pretty break even lately. Still looks like a down month though unless I get some wins in the next week.

While the results aren't there, my play is improving every time I sit down. That ultimately is what matters. I've become more adept at spotting mistakes I make in certain spots where I should shove or fold, and even bet sizing to maximize value from my hands. I've also been better at reading hands and knowing exactly when someone doesn't have a hand, or a big stack bully is just trying to push me around. Yes I've made a few stupid hero calls, but I feel I've made more good than bad. The bad ones you learn from and don't try to make again, and the good ones you learn from and can spot even more. I am finally really starting to see what all the pros talk about in playing the player, not the cards! Although monster hands don't hurt!

In other news since I've lost a decent chunk of my stars bankroll I have decided to cut out the $1.75 18 man games until I get back up a bit. While the variance is less in these games, two of those games can equate to three $1.10 45 or 90 man games so the variance/volume risk/reward is less. Say for example I cash in 1 out of every 4 (A very realistic percentage) 18 man games, that's at least $7 for buy-ins not counting any sort of profit. Well I can play 6- 45 or 90 man games for that price and would estimate cashing slightly less say 1 out of 5 games to be accurate. These cashes will however be more $ as there are more players involved. Essentially I get more games for my money at this point is what I need until my roll goes up some.

My bankroll on Fulltilt has remained about the same for the months so no adjustments are being made there in game selection just yet. I'm still grinding out the $2.25 27 and 18 man games.

Only one week left in the month and I'm determined to finish strong!